Arrington on CBO Baseline: “Houston, We Have a Problem”

WASHINGTON – Today, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released their latest Budget and Economic Outlook report, commonly referred to as the baseline. Today’s baseline report – which includes projections of federal spending, revenue, surpluses or deficits, and debt – shows that out-of-control spending by President Biden and Democrats during two years of one-party rule has exploded the national debt to unprecedented and truly unsustainable levels.

House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington (R-TX), said of the report:

“Today’s report from the non-partisan CBO shows the damage of Democrat spending on the national debt is worse than we thought.

“The new Congressional Budget Office report is a clear indication that Biden’s socialist policies and single-party Democrat rule has caused an unprecedented explosion in federal spending over the last two years – 21% higher than projected when Biden took office. Biden’s numerous bailouts and massive government expansion disguised as COVID relief has blown out spending and exacerbated our debt disaster. As a result, the federal debt will grow by over $22 trillion over the next 10 years.

“House Republicans must rein-in the unbridled spending and restore fiscal sanity in Washington before it’s too late.”


FY 2023 Deficit: This year’s deficit is projected to be $1.4 trillion, making it the fourth highest figure in American history. The FY 2023 deficit is equivalent to 5.4 percent of GDP, well above the 50-year average of 3.6 percent.

Deficit Projections:  The deficit grows over the baseline, doubling within ten years. The deficit is $2.9 trillion (7.3 percent of GDP) in 2033, at the end of the budget window. The deficit is projected to total $20.3 trillion over the next ten years.

Debt Projections: Debt held by the public is projected to increase from $24.3 trillion (97.0 percent of GDP) in 2022 to $46.4 trillion (118.2 percent of GDP) in 2033. Gross federal debt is projected to increase from $30.8 trillion (123.3 percent of GDP) in 2022 to $52.0 trillion (132.3 percent of GDP) in 2033.

Spending Projections: Spending is projected to be $6.2 trillion (23.7 percent of GDP) in 2023. Spending is projected to grow to $9.9 trillion (25.3 percent of GDP) in 2033. Over the 2024-2033 period, spending is projected to total $80.0 trillion.

Mandatory spending: is projected to increase from $3.8 trillion (14.6 percent of GDP) in 2023 to $6.1 trillion (15.6 percent of GDP) in 2033. Over ten years, mandatory spending is projected to amount to $48.2 trillion.

Inflation: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to increase by 4.0 percent in 2023, 2.4 percent in 2024, and about 2.0 percent each year thereafter.

Interest Rates: The projected interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes for 2023 has increased from 1.5 percent when President Biden took office to 3.9 percent in CBO’s latest projection, compared to 3.0 percent in 2022. The 10-year average interest rate projection is 3.8 percent.

Download the full fact sheet here.