Arrington on CBO Baseline
Today, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released their latest Update to the Budget Outlook report, commonly referred to as the baseline. Today’s baseline report – which includes projections of federal spending, revenue, surpluses or deficits, and debt – shows a $130 billion increase of this year’s deficit compared to their February projection.
House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington (R-TX), said of the report: “Every report we get from CBO confirms what the American people already know: Biden’s record $6 trillion deficit spending and failed economic policies have led to a cost of living crisis for working Americans and a nation on the brink of a debt crisis. We owe it to all Americans, especially our children, to begin reining-in spending and get our fiscal house in order before it’s too late.”
KEY FACTS: FY 2023 Deficit: This year’s deficit is projected to be $1.5 trillion making it the third highest figure in American history. The FY 2023 deficit is equivalent to 5.9 percent of GDP, well above the 50-year average of 3.6 percent.
Deficit Projections: The deficit grows over the baseline, nearly doubling within ten years. The deficit is $2.9 trillion (7.3 percent of GDP) in 2033, at the end of the budget window. Cumulative deficit will total $20.3 trillion over the next ten years.
Debt Projections: Debt held by the public is projected to increase from $24.3 trillion (96.9 percent of GDP) in 2022 to $46.7 trillion (118.9 percent of GDP) in 2033. Gross federal debt is projected to increase from $30.8 trillion (123.3 percent of GDP) in 2022 to $52.4 trillion (133.3 percent of GDP) in 2033.
Net Interest: FY 2023 net interest spending is projected to be $663 billion, $23 billion higher than CBO’s February estimate, and $187 billion or 39% higher than in FY 2022. By 2033, net interest will rise to $1.4 trillion, more than triple the FY 2022 figure. In 2028, net interest will exceed the cost of national defense.
Spending Projections: Spending is projected to be $6.4 trillion (24.2 percent of GDP) in 2023. Spending is projected to grow to $10 trillion (25.3 percent of GDP) in 2033. Over the 2024-2033 period, spending is projected to total $80 trillion.
Mandatory Spending: Mandatory spending is projected to increase from $4,6 trillion (17.7 percent of GDP) in 2023 to $7.6 trillion (19.3 percent of GDP) in 2033. Over ten years, mandatory spending is projected to amount to $58.8 trillion.