February 06, 2024
  •   Download PDF
  • CBO 2024 Baseline: Reading the Fiscal Tea Leaves

    Deficits Running Higher than CBO last Projected:

    FY 2023 Deficit: 32 Percent Higher Than Projected:

    • In May 2023, CBO projected the FY 2023 deficit to be $1.5 trillion. The actual FY 2023 deficit was $2 trillion (after accounting for the Administration’s student loan cancellations), a difference of $489 billion or 32 percent
    • Spending increases of note:
      • Medicare spending was $844 billion, $18 billion or 2.2 percent higher than projected.
      • Medicaid spending was $616 billion, $22 billion or 3.7 percent higher than projected.
      • Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) spending was $92 billion, $7o billion or 318.2 percent higher than projected.

    FY 2024 Deficit: Running 21 Percent Higher than Last Year:

    • In May 2023, CBO projected the FY 2024 deficit to be $1.6 trillion.
    • However, in CBO’s monthly budget reports, the deficit so far in FY 2024 is up by $94 billion or 21 percentcompared to last year. 
    • Spending increases of note:
      • Net interest payments were projected to increase by 12.4 percent from 2023 to 2024. Compared to this point last year, they are 49 percent higher.
      • Medicare spending was projected to increase by 0.2 percent from 2023 to 2024. Compared to this point last year, it is 13 percent higher.
      • Medicaid spending was projected to decline by 9.4 percent from 2023 to 2024. Compared to this point last year, it is 0.2 percent higher.
      • FDIC spending was projected to be negative this year. So far FDIC spending is $59 billion.

    Screenshot 2024-02-06 at 11

    *Year-to-date represents the first three months of program spending in 2023 versus the first three months of program spending in 2024