Chairman Arrington Releases Statement on Congressional Budget Office Budget Baseline
WASHINGTON D.C. — Today, House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington issued the following statement following the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) release of its February 2024 budget baseline.
“Today’s CBO baseline reveals that when Republicans stand firm on fiscal responsibility and force Congress to reduce spending, America’s fiscal outlook improves.
While our debt trajectory remains unsustainable driven by Biden’s executive actions, mandatory spending, and interest on our debt, the Republican-led debt ceiling deal to reduce discretionary spending has strengthened our balance sheet.
However, if we are going to ensure economic security for future generations, Congress must be serious about providing a check on expensive and overreaching executive actions, reforming healthcare and welfare entitlement programs, and continuing to rein-in the bloated federal bureaucracy.”
Background:
Today, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released their budget projections for fiscal years (FY) 2024-2034. CBO’s annual report helps Congress understand the fiscal and economic challenges facing the country. According to the report:
- Gross Federal Debt totals $54.4 trillion (130.6 percent of GDP) in 2034, up from $34.2 trillion (122.2 percent of GDP) now.
- FY2024 Deficit totals $1.5 trillion, the fourth highest figure in American history. The FY 2024 deficit is equivalent to 5.3 percent of GDP (the 50-year average is 3.7 percent).
- Ten Year Deficit totals $20.0 trillion. The deficit increases by 71 percent over the budget window, growing from $1.5 trillion this year to $2.6 trillion (6.2 percent of GDP) in 2034.
- Spending totals $82.7 trillion over ten years, and grows from $6.4 trillion (22.9 percent of GDP) in 2024 to $10.1 trillion (24.1 percent of GDP) in 2034. CBO projects mandatory spending (including interest) will increase from 73 percent of the budget in 2024 to 79 percent of the budget in 2034.
- Mandatory Spending: $51.0 trillion over ten years, grows from $3.8 trillion (13.6 percent of GDP) in 2024 to $6.3 trillion (15.2 percent of GDP) in 2034.
- Net Interest Spending: $12.4 trillion over ten years, grows from $870 billion (3.1 percent of GDP) in 2024 to $1.6 trillion (3.9 percent of GDP) in 2034.
- Discretionary Spending: $19.2 trillion over ten years, grows from $1.7 trillion (6.2 percent of GDP) in 2024 to $2.1 trillion (5.1 percent of GDP) in 2034.
- Revenue totals $62.6 trillion over ten years, and grows from $4.9 trillion (17.5 percent of GDP) in 2024 to $7.5 trillion(17.9 percent of GDP) in 2034. Revenue averages 17.8 percent of GDP over the decade, above the 50-year average of 17.4 percent of GDP.
- Economic Growth measures at 1.8 percent in 2024, with a 2.0 percent annual average over the next decade.
- CPI inflation measures at 2.6 percent in 2024, with a 2.2 percent annual average over the next decade.
- The projected interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes for 2024 has increased from 1.5 percent when President Biden took office to 4.6 percent in CBO’s latest projection. The 10-year average interest rate projection is 4.1 percent.
