December 01, 2022

More Pain Ahead in Biden Economy, Congressional Scorekeeper Projects

WASHINGTON, D.C. – The American economy is projected to experience weaker growth, higher unemployment, higher inflation, and higher interest rates than previously estimated, according to an analysis released yesterday by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). When compared to CBO’s February 2021 baseline established when President Biden took office, economic and fiscal estimates have worsened dramatically after two years of one-party Democrat rule in Washington.

House Budget Committee Republican Leader Jason Smith (MO-08) issued the following statement following the release of CBO’s report:

“This report shows that unless better policies are put in place to strengthen America’s economy, grow jobs and wages, and rollback reckless spending, Americans will continue to feel the effects of the Democrats’ failed economic policies for years to come. In fact, interest rates are now projected to be on average 4,700 percent higher in 2023 than CBO estimated at the start of Biden’s presidency. Thanks to the ongoing economic fallout from the Democrat agenda, the average unemployment rate for 2023 is projected to be nearly 38 percent higher than its current level. The last two years of Democrat one-party rule have been a disaster for working families who are struggling just to put food on the table. President Biden and Washington Democrats’ $10 trillion spending spree sparked inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to combat the highest spike in prices in 40 years, and have set our economy on a course for more pain to come. That is why House Republicans have made a commitment to use our new majority to stop the bleeding, fight back against wasteful spending, support higher wages, a stronger economy, energy independence, and to stop surrendering American jobs and supply chains to China.

- House Budget Committee Republican Leader Smith

Key Takeaways from CBO Report
  • Real GDP growth could be as low as -2.0 percent in 2023 – a potential 200 percent reduction from CBO’s projection for 2023 when Biden took office.
    • -0.1 percent average GDP forecast for 2023.
  • Inflation in 2023 could be as high as double what CBO previously projected
  • Interest rates in 2023 and 2024 are now projected to be higher than CBO’s February 2021 baseline, when Biden took office.
    • 4.8 percent average projection for 2023, higher than the February 2021 baseline estimate of 0.1 percent – a 4,700 percent increase.
    • 2.6 percent average projection for 2024, higher than the February 2021 baseline of 0.2 percent – a 1,200 percent increase.
  • Unemployment is now expected to increase from today’s rate of 3.7 percent.
    • 5.1 percent average projection for 2023 – a nearly 38 percent increase.
    • 4.8 percent average projection for 2024 – a nearly 30 percent increase.
  • Federal deficit would increase from the May 2022 baseline due to a combination of higher interest rates and a weaker economy.
    • $200 to $300 billion projected increase in deficits for 2023
    • $210 to $480 billion projected increases in deficits for 2024
Click here to read CBO's analysis.

Related Issues